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Men’s Final Preview…Federer – Murray

It looks like we got the two best players in the tourney, Federer & Murray.  I think that unless Murray lets the magnitude of the moment get to him, the match is his for the taking.  He’s player better than Fed right now, despite Fed’s semifinal performance vs. Tsonga.  First, some vitals stats on Murray:


 

Name Andy Murray
Age 22yrs – 23 in May
Height  6′ 3″
Weight 185 lbs
Plays Right, 2 handed bkhnd
GS Finals 2
GS Semi’s 1
GS QF’s 2
GS 4th 5
Tourney’s Won 14 – 4 Masters…6 R-Ups

Now here are some eye opening stats from Murray’s prior 6 matches here:

 

 

  Andy Murray 2010 Aussie
Rnd winners U-Errrors Ratio
1 50 19 2.6
2 50 32 1.6
3 66 31 2.1
4 37 9 4.1
QF 52 26 2.0
S 47 30 1.6
total 302 147 2.1
Winners per game 1.8

Here’s Fed’s match stats, since we all know his most important vital stat – going for #16.

 

Roger Federer 2010 Aussie
Rnd winners U-Errrors Ratio
1 39 38 1.0
2 61 18 3.4
3 48 42 1.1
4 57 27 2.1
QF 47 47 1.0
S 37 13 2.8
total 289 185 1.6
Winners per game 1.7

Murray’s overall ratio of 2.1 winners to unforced betters Fed’s 1.6 by a .5 margin, and he’s a tad better on winners per game, 1.8 to 1.7.  So for a guy who you’d think is generally a more defensive, reactive player than Fed, the numbers show he is quite efficient and effective in his offense.  He’s almost 6 years younger than Fed, playing in his prime, and possesses nice size, amazing speed, and wizardry with the raquet – his shot vs. Cilic between the post & the umpire in the semis – absurd.

Of course, Fed is Fed – the living legend, best player ever possibly.  Murray needs to pick on the backhand – don’t let Fed get on a roll w/ his favorite weapon.  Keep him hitting backhands, and even try to imitate Nadal a bit and hit a few extra loopy & high.  Keep him out of a rythm.  If there’s any player with enough variety of shotmaking to keep Fed off balance, it is Andy Murray.

Murray in 4 sets.  I think he’s ready. This is a major moment for him to seize and make a statement – ‘I’m at the top of the mountain in 2010, come knock me off.’

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