NBA Playoff Awards – 4/30/13
76ers Snatch Defeat From Jaws of Victory, Hawes Continues to Play Like Another Spencer H.Philadelphia was 10 seconds and a 5 point lead away from a major upset in Denver, attempting to snap the Nuggets 13 game winning streak. But then Corey Brewer, a would-be Hollow Man Award winner (29 pts, 1 reb, 0 asst) except that he had 5 stls & a block, took over. He first hit a trey w/ 9 sec left, and then fouled Evan Turner 2 seconds later. Turner found a bone in his throat and missed both free throws…100-98 Philly, 7 sec left. Brewer then launches a trey, and, unbelievably, was fouled by journeyman Damien Wilkins (Gerald’s son, Dominique’s nephew). Corey hit all 3 free throws, and then Wilkins’ desperation shot at the buzzer was blocked by seldom-used but always talented Anthony Randolph to enable the Nuggets to steal the game, their 14th win in a row.As for Spencer Hawes, it’s probably a stretch to compare him to the other Spencer H., Spencer Haywood, the flamboyant hoops prodigy who dominated the ABA his rookie season (30.0/19.5 rebs) and had four 20/10 NBA seasons before cocaine derailed his career in the late 70’s. Their personalities are basically at opposite ends of the spectrum, and games quite different, but nonetheless, Hawes has continued his surprisingly dominant stretch of hoops, going off for 17/12/5 & 4 blks last night (8-11 shooting) and now averaging 15.0/10.6/5.2 asst, 3.4 blk while hitting 54.4% from the floor his last 5 games…14.9/9.7/4.2 & 2.3 blks his last 10 gms (54.0%). There were many other performances of note as well in the game – Wilkins going off for 24 pts, his second 20+ effort this month after going 280 straight games without hitting 20 pts (last time was 3/24/08). That has to be one of the longer stretches in NBA history between 20 pt games, I’m guessing. Jrue also exploded (more below) after his tragic effort vs. the Clips Wed night. For Denver, Andre The Giant again defied Father Time and showed why he might need Hall of Fame consideration when he’s finally done, starting in place of an injured Ty Lawson (heel) and posting 21 pts, 3 reb, & 8 asst while going 9-14 from the field. Finally, Anthony Randolph played over 20 minutes for just the 2nd time this year, and while the numbers weren’t fat (7 pts, 3 rebs, 3 stl, 1 blk), it’s nice to see George Karl trust him a bit – I’m still convinced he could be a legit, productive starter in the league someday, still only 23 yrs old though he’s wrapping up his 5th season now.Other Thursday GamesPortland went into Chicago and took care of the wayward Bulls, 99-89 behind Aldridge’s 28/8 & 2 blks and Lillard’s 24/4/7 asst. Batum also did his ‘little bit of everything’ routine, grabbing 6 boards and dishing 6 dimes while also nabbing 3 stls and garnering 2 fly swats as well, though his shooting was quite off (3-12). For Chicago, Boozer led the way (16/11/3, 2 stl) while Taj Gibson had 14 & 9 rebs off the bench. The Bulls have now lost 6 of their last 8 games…..The Sacramento Kings have now won 4 of their last 6 after beating the Timberwolves 101-98 last night in Minnesota. Miny-Mite PG Isaiah Thomas had 24/6 asst, while hitting 8 of his 15 shots, Tyreke came thru as well (21/5/5), and Cousins grabbed 14 rebs to go with his 15 pts for the Kings. Patrick Patterson, a guy I first noticed and liked when I finally got around to checking out John Wall on TV in a January 2010 Kentucky game, had 11/4/2 asst, 2 stl/2 blk coming off the bench for Sacto. Nikola Pekovic (18/12) was the only T-Wolve with more than 12 pts, though Rubio had 7 rebs, 9 asst, and 3 stls in the game (but again, his horrific shooting: 4-13).The Akeem Olajuwon Award — Jrue Holiday — 18 pts, 6 rebs, 15 asst, 3 FTM, 4 stl, 1 blk, 3 treys, and 6-12 shooting…Just for fun, let’s rank the league’s PGs, since there’s so many studly ones right now, and many have vastly differing styles:#1) Westy#2) Tony P#3) CP III#4) Curry#5) Jrue#6) Rondo#7) D-Will#8) Lawson#9) Lillard#10) Vasquez#11) Br. Jennings#12) Jeff Teague#13) Mike Conley#14) Goran Dragic#15) Kemba WalkerThe Rafael Araujo Award — Luol Deng — 5 pts, 2 rebs, 2 asst, 0 FTM, 1 stl, 0 blk, 1 treys, and 2-7 shooting in 26 minutes…Deng is generally a slightly better than average player in my eyes, certainly not deserving of 2 All-Star game appearances the last two seasons, but he’s been particularly bad of late. In his last 10 games, he’s at 13.6/5.3/2.4 while shooting 39.3%. For the season (16.1/6.5/2.9), he’s shooting just 42.3%, his 2nd worst ever (last year was 41.2%…but he made his 1st All-Star game…?!!!?!!?!!?).
We’ve come up to some juicy matchups in the men’s lower half of the draw in the Round of 16, headlined by an extreme case of opposites attracting – Nadal vs. Gulbis. Nadal leads 4-0, but lost one set to Gulbis in each of their first three encounters, including on the clay of Rome in 2010, Nadal’s favorite surface. One obvious opposite is their mental approach to the game and matches. Gulbis has a carefree attitude, highly emotional on court at times, and has often underachieved for long stretches of his career…though at other times has showed tremendous ability, power, athleticism, and touch on the court. Nadal’s effort and competitive attitude on court, even when up 6-1, 5-1 in matches, is legendary, as is his resume at age 26 – 11 slams, 5 slam r-ups, 52 titles, and Year End Top 3 seven times, including twice #1. The other extreme opposite in this matchup is their hardcourt prep time. Nadal has played 1 ATP hardcourt match in the last 345 days, earning a walkover in round 3 when Leonardo Mayer had to pull out of their match. Gulbis on the other hand, has played 3 main draw matches here, 2 qualifying matches in the desert, and 8 hardcourt matches in Delray Beach – 3 qualifying, 5 main draw. He has won all of these matches, 13 in a row, but officially just 8 (qualies don’t count toward official ATP match wins). Prediction: Gulbis wins a set, but Nadal wins the match.
Federer vs. Wawrinka (Fed leads 12-1). Yes, complete domination by the Swiss #1 against the Swiss #2, but this matchup has been much closer than that the last 3 times they’ve played, including the most recent, Stanislas winning the first set at the 2012 Shanghai Masters and taking the 2nd to a tiebreaker, before losing that 7-4 and then melting in the 3rd, 6-0. But Stan has some confidence on hardcourts after playing possibly the best tennis of his life against Djoker in the 4th round in Australia (12-10 loss in the 5th), and is 3 & ½ years younger than the living legend, who at 31 now hasn’t made an ATP final yet this year in 3 previous tournaments. Prediction: I’m going to go with Wawrinka in a shocking upset in 3 sets.
Berdych vs. Gasquet (Gaquet leads 4-2). Indeed, the shorter, lower-ranked Frenchman has a winning record against Berd Dog, who has now been ranked in the Top 10 since July of 2010 (currently 6th). Gasquet, currently ranked 10th, finished 2012 in the Top 10 (also 10th) for the 2nd time in his career (previously in 2007, at age 21), and has won a title this year already – Montpellier – though it was a rather weak field. Berdych has been playing great though, reaching the finals of his last two events (Dubai – l. to Djokovic; Marseille, l. to Tsonga) and winning both matches here in straight sets, losing a total of just 11 games to Mischa Zverev and Florian Mayer. Prediction: Gasquet has won the last two, including at the Toronto Masters last year, but I think his winning streak ends here, in three sets.
Gilles Simon vs. Kevin Anderson (Never Played). Definitely the 4th bill of the lower half R16 matchups, as neither of these two are overly compelling to watch, though they certainly present contrasting styles – the speedy, steady Simon against the 6’8” South African giant. Simon has already slayed one giant this year, beating Del Potro at Marseille in straight sets, while Anderson failed in his giant vs. giant encounter at Delray Beach, losing to Isner (who lost here immediately, 3 sets to Hewitt) in the quarterfinals (Anderson’s only tourney post Aussie Open). Prediction: Simon is higher ranked (#13 to #37), has more experience and career titles (10 to Anderson’s 2), and takes this match…in 3 sets.
Two months into the season comes one of the biggest events of the year – Indian Wells. All the best men & women arrive in the Southern California desert to play at a top notch facility and earn some big ranking points, prize money, and recognition before April comes and the clay court season begins in earnest.
For the men, it all starts with Novak Djokovic, who started off 2013 by winning his 4th Aussie title and then won Dubai for the 4th time as well just last week, beating Del Potro & Berdych in the semis and final, his 36th career ATP title. He’s been #1 for 18 weeks in a row, 71 weeks total (11th all-time), and has made the finals of 8 of the last 10 grand slams, winning 5 of them. He needs only a title at Roland Garros for the career slam, and if he takes Indian Wells this year (lost to Isner in semis a year ago), it’ll be his 3rd I.W. title after hoisting the trophy in 2008 (def. Fish) and 2011 (def. Nadal). He was runner-up in 2007 (l. to Nadal). He’s currently on an 18 match winning streak dating back to the year-end championships last November, his last loss coming to Querrey in round 2 at the 2012 Paris Masters.
The Contenders World #3 Andy Murray, Djoker’s opponent in the Aussie final, would seem to be the next favorite (he beat Federer in the Aussie semis), but he hasn’t played since the Down Under slam. He now has a slam title of course, beating his Serbian rival in the US Open final last year, and was literally inches away from being up a set and a break against him at this year’s Aussie. He was up 7-6, 1-0 with Novak serving at 0-40. Novak earned the first break point save, but on the second, Murray missed an easy shot wide that would have given him the break…and maybe all he needed for his 2nd straight slam. Murray has 25 titles to his name, 21 of them on hard courts, but none at I.W., his best result being a runner-up finish to Nadal in 2009 (an ugly 6-1, 6-2 loss). Surprisingly, he’s failed to win a match the last two years in the desert, losing to Donald Young in 2011 and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez last year – both in straight sets! Roger Federer, now 31 and #2 in the rankings, is still battling the big boys, but with not as much success as during his heyday. It took him 5 sets to dispatch Tsonga in the Aussie quarterfinals before losing in the semis 6-2 in the 5th to Murray. He lost to Julien Benneteau at Rotterdam in the middle of last month, and then in the semis at Dubai last week, Berdych saved 3 match pts in the 2nd set tiebreaker before beating him 6-4 in the 3rd. Berdych also took him out at the 2012 US Open, a 4 set quarterfinal victory. But Fed is the defending champion here, beating Isner in last year’s final for his 4th I.W. crown – he won three straight from 2004 to 2006. Rafael Nadal, now ranked 5th, is back after a 7 month layoff to deal with knee tendonitis. He’s played three small South American events, all on clay, to ease back onto the tour – winning the last two but losing to Horacio Zeballos in the finals of the first – Vina Del Mar, Chile. He’s made the finals in the desert the last 3 odd numbered years, winning in ’07 and ’09 but losing to Djokovic in 2011. This will be his first big test since being out, playing off his favorite surface and with a full field of the best players. A semifinal or better result would have to be considered a success. Finally, Tomas Berdych has played very well since the 2012 US Open began, including two wins over Fed and three over Tsonga in that stretch, one of them in the finals at Stockholm last October, his 8th career title. He hasn’t made it past the QFs here though, and only once made it that far – in 2010 where he then lost to Nadal. He’s #6 in the world now, a career-best, and at 27 years old, might be playing his best tennis yet (though he was a 2010 Wimbledon finalist, beating Fed in the QFs, Djoker in the semis).
2nd Tier Contenders Jo-Wilfried Tsonga gets the nod over Del Potro and Ferrer as the favorite in this tier, having won Marseille (def. Berdych) last month and battled Fed tight in the Aussie QFs this year, losing 6-3 in the 5th. He also seems due to for a Southern California desert breakthrough, having never advanced beyond the Round of 16 here. Juan Martin Del Potro has only played here 4 times, but already has 2 QF appearances and one semi result, losing only to the best – Nadal in the QFs (2009) and semis (2011), Fed in the QFs last year. He had a disappointing Aussie, losing to surprise quarterfinalist Jeremy Chardy in the 3rd round, but rebounded to take the title at Rotterdam a month later. David Ferrer, currently at a career-high #4 ranking, has lost to Djoker in the semis of the last two slams, but has had very little success at Indian Wells, having only made the QFs once in ten trips, back in 2007 (l. to Djokovic). But he does have two titles under his belt in 2013, Auckland and Buenos Aries, and lost in the finals to Nadal last week at Acapulco (ugly…6-0, 6-2). He’s a longshot to win his 21st career title here, but should be able to make his 2nd quarterfinal.
Other Dangerous Names (Best I.W. Result) Stanislas Wawrinka (QF ’08, ’11), currently ranked #18, gave Djokovic an epic battle in the 4th round of the Aussie this year (lost 12-10 in the 5th), and also made the finals of Bueno Aries (l. to Ferrer)…Ernests Gulbis (R64 ’08-’10) qualified at and then won Delray Beach last week, and was ranked as high as #21 in 2010, but has to go through qualifying again this week here (#1 seed in qualies). He has the talent and big enough weapons to do some damage, though stamina will likely be a major issue after all the tennis he’s had to play…Richard Gasquet (QF ’11) and his fabulous one-handed backhand (Wawrinka’s also supreme) comes to the desert having just won Montpellier a couple weeks ago and having made the 4th round at Australia (l. to Tsonga in 4 sets)…Nicolas Almagro (QF ’12), long known as a clay court specialist, has built a decent hard court resume the last few years, making the QFs of the Aussie this year, 4th round there 2010-12, and the 4th at the US Open last year, though all 12 of his career titles have come on the dirt…Janko Tipsarevic (R32 ’07, ’12) has made the QFs of the US Open the last two years, and 3 of his 4 career tourney wins are hardcourt titles, but he hasn’t broken through here. Ranked #9, he does have two QF appearances in Miami…Milos Raonic (R32 ’11, ’12), just 22 yrs old, is the only guy in the top 20 (ranked 17th) born in the 1990’s, but outside of great success in San Jose (won it last 3 years, including 2013) and a few 4th round slam appearances (Aussie 2011 & ’13; US Open ’12), his resume remains rather thin. His monster serve and forehand are somewhat negated by limited mobility (he’s 6’5”)…Kei Nishikori (R64 ’12) is the opposite of Raonic – a 5’10” Japanese speedburner ranked 16th. He won Memphis this year (3rd career title), and made the QFs of Australia a year ago, but lost in the 4th this year to Ferrer, and it wasn’t close. Nishikori won his first title at just 18 yrs old, beating James Blake at Delray Beach in 2008…Marin Cilic (R32 ’09, ’11) showed a lot of promise in making the Aussie semis in 2010, but has basically stalled out since then. He did make the QFs of the US Open last year (only slam QF since ’10 Aussie) and has won a few smaller titles as well, including Zagreb this year (def. Melzer in final).
The Americans You may have noticed something all the above players have in common – none are Americans. Yes, it’s a rough time for American male tennis, as the lumbering John Isner, still ranked 15th, has dipped sharply since tantalizing last year with big Davis Cup wins and his finalist appearance in the desert. Since reaching the US Open QFs in 2011, he has lost in the 3rd, 2nd, 1st, and 3rd round at subsequent slams in 2012, and missed the Aussie this year with an ankle injury. Just last week he had a golden chance to face Gulbis in the Delray Beach final, but lost to journeyman Edouard Roger-Vasselin in the semis. He turns 28 next month, a full two years older than both Murray and Djokovic, and a year older than Nadal. He is not going to carry the US torch very far…Sam Querrey is a nice player, ranked 23rd and holder of 7 career titles. But while more mobile than Isner, at 6’6” he’s not mobile or athletic enough to hang with the big boys, as shown at this year’s Aussie in the 3rd round when he was soundly beaten by Wawrinka in 3 sets…Mardy Fish (ranked #32) had a career year in 2011, finishing 8th in the world, but 2012 was a nightmare of disappointing losses and injury, and at age 31, his best days are surely behind him…Ryan Harrison at 6’0” is far shorter and more athletic than Sammy Q and Isner, but has failed to make much progress since wowing fans at the 2010 US Open (great 2nd round match vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky). He’s still ranked just 73 and has had no luck at all in his grand slam draws, but losing matches like his last three won’t help him boost his ranking to avoid high seeds early at slams (all 1st round losses: Benjamin Becker, ranked 61, Lukasz Kubot, ranked 81, and finally Daniel Munoz De La Nava, ranked 154 at Delray last week). The only good news is he doesn’t turn 21 until May 7th…Finally, the feel-good Brian Baker (#56) story of 2012 had a rough start to 2013 as he tore his lateral meniscus in the 2nd round of the Aussie this year. As it is, he’s the same age as Isner and probably has a ceiling of 30th or so anyway, if he’s able to come back strong from this at age 28. Sadly, outside of 34 year old Michael Russell (#70) and 33 year old James Blake (#99), that is it for Americans in the top 100. Not a lot of promise…and very little on the horizon (though Harrison’s little brother Christian did push Gulbis to 3 sets before losing in qualifying here. He turns 19 in late May.)
So there you have it, a preview of Indian Wells as well a glance at the state of men’s tennis these days. Enjoy the tourney.